We don’t understand the fascination or effectiveness of seasonal price charts for marketing decisions.
Our research suggests relying on historical seasonal price behaviour leads to mediocre marketing returns.
Narratives involving Durum seasonality often include certainties, such as “Durum prices are lowest in the fall.” or “Durum always rises in seeding and summer.”
No one knows with 100% certainty IF or WHEN the price will move.
Although people seek certainty, we don’t play that game.
Being market technicians, we have learnt (the hard way) not to speak with certainty.
So we don’t.
Long-time premium subscribers will remember our July 29, 2022, Durum Price Seasonality.
This link is provided for those of you who missed it.
The chart below offers a refresher.
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